Over the past few days I had the chance to read some advance reviews, and hear a great podcast interview with the author of an upcoming book.
I can’t wait until the book is out at the end of July. This is going to be one very insightful book, based on what I’ve read. That crypto isn’t an investment, and is never going to replace real money as a currency should be apparent to anyone who has done some basic due diligence or research. However, author Ben McKenzie also explains a lot of the inside dealings in ways us non-crypto people can understand.
And one more part to the crypto mess: A large number of so-called celebrities and “influencers” promoted crypto companies of one kind or another. They’re not being sued – and rightfully so – for promoting…well…crap. Any crap, any product, whatever it is in order to get paid for the promotion to their fans or followers. One legitimate mega star is (and has always been) one of the sharpest business people that avoided getting dragged into this:
The first rule of gambling is that you’ll be down way more times than you’ll be up. The second rule is that you need to remember gamblers will tell you all the details of their run of wins and profits in the casino and somehow skip over all the previous losses.
That’s why crypto fans would just as soon forget last weekend, or spin it as a short-term correction, and a great chance to buy more… Last weekend, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $34,042. That’s a 50 percent loss since the high of last November, and a loss of $600 billion. In aggregate, crypto gamblers (including Ethereum, Solana and Cardano) lost a trillion bucks.
When you buy US dollars, the exchange may go up or down fifty cents or a buck for every $100 you buy. So, calling crypto a “currency” is, to me, a joke when it can change in value by half inside two months. But it’s kind of like pot: Vast numbers of 18 to 30-year-olds want to try it – and that’s a large group of crypto buyers right now.
Is it better that crypto had a massive drop for millennials to realize this isn’t investing, it’s gambling? I hope so. To paraphrase Kenny Rogers’ song: You gotta know when to hold them – know when to fold them – know when to walk away – know when to run. Bill Maher on Real Time (HBO) said it best last Friday:
“I think I know why you’re happy this week. It’s because you didn’t invest in crypto… I was hoping for this – it’s horrible for the environment and it’s just f’n stupid! It crashed like a rock. It lost almost a trillion dollars. I mean, people in the metaverse are jumping off virtual buildings! And you know who got it the worst? Millennials. Because they thought it was cool. And now they’re like – wait – you mean it was a bad idea to put all my savings into an imaginary currency with a dog on it? But you know what’s doing good? The ACTUAL economy.”
Investing takes time, patience, very little active trading, and is more turtle-like than meteoric. But at the end of the day, when you want to retire, you’ll actually have something substantial. An S&P 500 index fund is adventure enough. Crypto won’t get you there – sorry. Can it become something resembling a legitimate online currency? Maybe in a decade or two. Among other things, that would take massive government regulations across the globe. If it’s only regulated in a few countries, transactions would just move to offshore jurisdictions without those regulations. Right now, it’s the must-go place for people (crooks) who need (not want – need) anonymity: Drug dealers, crooked third-world leaders, ransomware hijackers getting paid, arms dealers doing their transactions and the likes. Sure, some – ok – very few – businesses accept crypto. But I would suggest that’s more for the publicity than any real quantity of business. Count me out wanting to be in the same “currency” or world as those people.
Update: A new Bitcoin vending machine in CrossIron Mall, Calgary
Update 4/12/22: A Great line from Bill Maher on last week’s Real Time (HBO): Miami is hoping to become the crypto capital of the world. Makes sense. Because, like crypto, Miami won’t be around in 20 years (with global warning).
Update 6/14/22: One of the largest crypto companies, Celsius just froze all client withdrawals. And they’re one of the largest companies! That, according to Bloomberg has now taken crypto gambling from a high of over $3 trillion last November to total valuations of less than a trillion as of yesterday. On top of that, a US report last week showed that over a billion dollars of peoples’ money thinking they were investing in crypto actually went to fraudsters. Are ya sure this is a place you want to have your money?
