The Markets & US Election Prediction

If you’re concerned about the stock market performance because of the US election, here’s something you should know:

Since 1945, the broad S&P 500 has had annual returns of:

6.9% when there has been a Republican president

11.2% when there has been a Democratic president in the White House

A Joe Biden win, along with Democrats controlling the Senate may be a much bigger market bump. After all, there still isn’t a stimulus for tens of millions of Americans – in spite of all the talks.

As always, Florida is always one of the States to watch. Florida’s Governor has fully re-opened the economy to help Trump. Restaurants actually have to apply to the government if they want to open at less than 100% capacity. He also has lifted the halt on evictions effective November 1st. It’s estimated over 100,000 people will be evicted three days before the election. The State has over 1 million Puerto Ricans since hurricane Maria in 2017. They remember Trump’s trashing of the island and his “help” in throwing out paper towels.

Florida relies almost entirely on tourism income since there’s no State income tax, and property taxes are pretty moderate. That’s down over 55% and Disney just laid off another 28,000 workers in Orlando. It’s also a State where half the population is over age 50. And that voting block takes the virus pandemic seriously – very seriously.

The pandemic first hit the coastal areas, then the sunbelt this summer. It is now in the mid-west and Florida. The exact States that were Trump wins in 2016 are now getting hard hit by outbreaks way above the national average. With Florida’s fully reopened economy, along with Iowa and Wisconsin, those three States will have massive problems and record cases, along with exploding death cases by next week. For lots of reasons, that’ll make a lot of seniors leery of supporting Trump again this election.

If you want a US election prediction: Watch election night between 6:30 and 7:00 pm Kelowna time. By then, Florida will have been decided because they’re one of the few states that count early votes in advance – starting this week. So they’ll have full results that night of all – literally all – votes.

It’s not likely to be the typical super-close election there. (Remember Bush vs. Gore in 2000?) If Joe Biden wins Florida, there’s over a 98% certainty he will be victorious. So a Florida win and you can go to bed by 7:30pm. Even if he doesn’t, and you’ll need to stay up for another hour or so – he will be elected the 46th President of the United States.

If you’re not a Trump fan, you need to hope for a blow-out election. If you are, you’re certainly hoping it’s close or that Trump wins. Close means Donald Trump Jr. can run for the Republican nomination in 2024. A blow-out will likely wipe out any further political office aspirations for the family. You’ll just have Trump TV by 2021 and his twitter account to follow.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.